CLIMATIC CHANGE AND EFFECTS ON POTENTIAL AREAS FOR MAIZE IN JALISCO, MEXICO

Abstract

The objetive of this study was to quantify the impact of the climatic change during the period 1947-1996, on the potential areas for maize (Zea mays L.), in Jalisco, México. A retrospective analysis was performed comparing climatic date from the periods 1947-1971 and 1972-1996 in terms of the changes in the growing season (EC) and its thermal capacity (CT) with growing-degree days (GDD) units, and determining the effects of these changes on the potential areas for the cultivation of maize of four maturity cycles: late-intermediate, intermediate, early-intermediate and early cultivars. The potential areas were determined through a process that compared CT from EC against the thermal requirement (RT) from maize cultivars. To have this it was necessary to develop matrices of geo-referenced data about such variables and to integrate them to the information system IDRISI, through which was possible to generate state images (maps) and area calculations for maize potential zones. The results showed that the potential areas for maize cultivation were modified since the area suitable for late-intermediate and early maizes decreased 24 and 49 % respectively, while the surface appropriate for intermediate and early-intermediate maizes increased 44 and 73 %, respectively. It was concluded
that the climatic changes that took place during 1972-1996 had a negative impact on the regional agroclimate and the potential area for maize cultivation in Jalisco, which was reduced by 319, 950 ha.