SEASONAL AND CYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS OF THE MEXICAN SUGAR PRICES

Abstract

Analysis of fluctuations in the price of sugar is important as producer income decreases during low price periods. To provide recommendations that allow facing the volatility of standard sugar prices, an analysis was conducted to determine the seasonal and cyclical components of sugar wholesale prices. The period under study was from October 2004 to September 2016, at supply centers in México City, Guadalajara and Monterrey. The knowledge of the price components (trend, seasonal cyclical and irregular) is important because it allows an adequate selection of a policy to face the fluctuations. Results indicate the existence of a strong seasonal component with maximum differences in periods of high prices of 1.83, 1.65 and 1.78 $ kg^-1, between real and seasonally-adjusted prices of standard sugar in September of 2009 at supply centers in Mexico City, Guadalajara and Monterrey, respectively. The minimum differences between both prices in months of low prices were of -0.95, -0.88 and - 0.94 $ kg^-1 in March 2010 at the same supply centers. There is also a strong cyclical component, since four cycles, with an average duration of 19 months, were detected in the analyzed period. Because of the negative effects that an extreme volatility may have on the producers income, it is recommended to have supply-control policies such as a constant shipment of sugar to the market and the planning of the harvested surface of sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.) through time.