EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON SUGARCANE YIELD AT THE TRES VALLES, VERACRUZ, MEXICO SUGAR-MILL

Abstract

In Mexico, the sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.) agro-industry has been impacted by alterations caused by climate change, and consequently, this affects sugar production and food security. The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of altered maximum temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation on the yield of the three main sugarcane varieties in the supply area of the Tres Valles sugar-mill, Veracruz, Mexico. The method used was the simulation of sugarcane growth with the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) software, using data on climate, soil, genetic coefficients and crop management. Results show that for the simulation period 1984-2023, and under a scenario of a maximum temperature increase of 2 °C, yield of varieties CP 72-2086, MEX 69-290 and ITV 92-373 decreases by 10 %. If precipitation increases by 100 mm yield is increased by 5 %, and it decreases by 8 % if solar radiation is reduced by 10 %. It is concluded that the alteration of temperature, precipitation and solar radiation patterns impacts crop management, yield and productivity.