HYDRO-CLIMATIC BALANCE OF Brosimum alicastrum SW. AND ITS VARIABILITY UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, MEXICO

Abstract

Historically, ramon (Brosimum alicastrum Sw.) has been used by the Mayan culture as forage and as a source of protein for human consumption. Due to the wide natural distribution of ramon in the Yucatan Peninsula, and its resistance to periods of low water, its silvicultural management has been null; however, the areas where it develops are highly vulnerable to climate variations. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to associate the climatic water balance (CWB) of the areas where ramon grows in the Yucatan Peninsula, with the current potential distribution (CPD) of the species and the effects that the future climate would cause on distribution to establish the climatic factors that condition the development of the species and eventually its silvicultural management. Using geographic information techniques, the climatic variables that determine the CPD of ramon in the region were determined; for this, the MaxEnt algorithm was used. The most vulnerable areas to future climate were spatially located with A₂-type climate change models. The CWB showed that the availability of water for ramon in the region, for the period 1979-2012 presented a decreasing trend (β₁ = -0.0212). MaxEnt found that the climatic variables that condition the ramon CPD are associated with the availability of water, being annual evaporation (85% of the precipitation in the region evaporates) and precipitation in the wettest quarter (150 mm per month, July to September) the ones that contribute the most to the model with 48.3 and 10.3 % respectively. Climate change models predict a reduction in the coverage of the species of 80 % of the current area, moving it away from the coasts and concentrating it in the center of the Yucatan Peninsula. It is concluded that silvicultural management for the species will be necessary in the short term.