EFFECTS OF NAFTA ON TOMATO EXPORTS FROM MÉXICO TO THE UNITED STATES

Abstract

In this study we measured the effects of the elimination of tariffs agreed in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) exports from México to the United States, during the period 1994-2001, as well as to determine the effects of total tomato commercial liberalization between México and United States. To reach these purposes, a spatial and intertemporal model was estimated and validated in production, consumption and trade from México to USA considering 1999 – 2001 as the average year. Results indicate that tariffs elimination in the period 1994- 2001 produced an increase of the tomato Mexican exports in 4.7 thousand tons; therefore, the growth in the tomato trade between Mexico and USA in 1994-2001 should be attributed to factors other than NAFTA. By the year 2004, when the tomato market will be totally liberalized, it is expected that Mexican exports will increase in 18 thousand tons, a modest increase. Thus, the future growth of Mexican tomato exports should be based on factors other than tariffs barriers.