MODIFICATION OF THE HABITAT FOR Lysiloma latisiliquum (L.) Benth. (TZALAM) FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Abstract

The modeling of climate habitat for the potential distribution of species is a useful tool to project the climate change impacts and to implement management strategies to mitigate its negative effects. The objective of this study was to determine the potential distribution of the contemporary and future (decade centered in the year 2030) climatic habitat for Tzalam, Lysiloma latisiliquum (L.) Benth., a tree of dry and deciduous forest of the Yucatan Peninsula. Geographical records for L. latisiliquum were obtained from the Mexican National Forest and Soil Inventory (INFS) and climatic grids for contemporary (average 1961-1990) and future (decade centered around 2030), with scenarios of intermediate greenhouse-effect gas concentration (6.0 W m^-2). Potential distribution was modeled with the MaxEnt algorithm. By the year 2030, a loss of climatic habitat of 43 % is projected in relation to contemporary distribution, confining it mainly to the center of the Yucatan Peninsula. It is proposed to collect seed in the current distribution, mainly in near-shore populations, and to plant them at the center of the Peninsula, as well as to preserve germplasm ex situ, in order to realign the populations to the future climate and ensure the conservation of the genetic diversity of Tzalam.