THE FRESH APPLE MARKET IN MEXICO: 2000-2021

Abstract

Due to its contribution of vitamins A, C, K and B6, magnesium, iron and potassium, apple is one of the most consumed fruit products in the world. In 2021, 632 and 931 thousand tons of apple were produced and consumed, respectively, in Mexico; hence, the trade balance is in deficit. The objective of this study was to analyze the apple market in Mexico to know the factors that determine it. The methodology consisted in estimating an econometric model of simultaneous equations, which used time series from 2000 to 2021. The supply (0.01) and demand (0.94) were inelastic at their prices and the international price is transmitted inelastically (0.04) at the wholesale price. The average minimum temperature (-1.26), the consumer price (-3.34) and the national disposable income (6.09) were elastic with respect to the foreign trade balance. The trade deficit may improve if the supply increases, but measures affecting the producer price of apple and fertilizer will be ineffective. Actions are recommended to encourage investments in crop protection in the face of adverse climatic events.