IS IT POSSIBLE TO REDUCE FOOD DEPENDENCY OF CORN IN MEXICO?

Abstract

Over the last three decades, the grain food security policy in Mexico has taken advantage of low international prices in the world market and has allowed an increasing percentage of consumption to be supplied with imports. In the case of corn (Zea mays L.), in 2021 imports of 17.4 million tons placed the food dependence index (FDI) at 38.8 %. With the aim of analyzing the possibility of reducing food dependence of corn, four scenarios were devised to determine the necessary increase in yield and harvested area that would allow to reduce FDI to 25 %. Information on corn consumption, imports, exports, production, planted area and yield (in irrigation, rainfed and production cycle) in 2021 was used, and a corn production function in the rainfed zones was estimated with data at the state level. Results indicated that an increase in yield from 2.57 to 3.32 t ha^-1 in the rainfed areas of the Spring-Summer cycle and the modernization of 500 thousand ha with irrigation systems (technified and non-technified) could reduce food dependency to 25 %. Given the risk in the future of a likely increase in international corn prices, which would make it increasingly difficult to achieve food security, it is recommended that the Mexican State implement the necessary measures to increase domestic production and reduce food dependency.